How to Plan Q1 Inventory for Chinese New Year Shutdowns
Struggling to figure out how early you should stock up before Chinese New Year?
You’re not alone.
Every seller who sources from China hits the same wall around January:
Factories shut down.
Lead times explode.
Shipping slows.
Your Q1 turns into survival mode.
That’s why Q1 inventory planning matters more than anything else during this period.
Let me walk you through exactly how I handle it—simple, practical, and zero fluff.
Chinese New Year (Chinese New Year) is not a long weekend.
It’s a full supply-chain shutdown that lasts 2–6 weeks.
Here’s what actually happens:
Factory workers go home for extended breaks/Production stops completely
Ports operate with limited staff/Freight rates jump/QC and inspection teams pause
/Post-holiday production queues get long—sometimes 30–45 days
If you source from China, your products are affected—period.
Without a clear plan, you risk:
Stockouts/Listing rank drops/Lost revenue
Angry customers/Emergency shipping costs
Planning early isn’t optional. It’s protection.
And yes—this system works every single year.
If you’re planning in January, you're already late.
Here’s the simple timeline I use:
December: finalize production + inspections
January: last shipments before shutdown
February: everything slows or stops
March: factories recover gradually
Your goal is simple:
👉 Have 90–120 days of inventory ready before factories close.
Your normal 2–4 week buffer won’t survive Chinese New Year delays.
For Q1, I increase safety stock by:
👉 30–50% depending on product demand
Which items should get the larger buffer?
Your top sellers
Fast-moving consumables
Products with historically long lead times
Items from suppliers with inconsistent timelines
Holding extra stock costs less than losing your listing rank.
This is the strategy that has saved me the most money.
Instead of shipping one big batch, I do:
Batch A: ships before Chinese New Year
Batch B: produced before Chinese New Year, but ships after reopening
Why this works:
Protects you from freight spikes/Reduces risk of delays
Keeps inventory flowing/Gives you a buffer even if customs is busy
If you want to avoid a Q1 disaster, never rely on one shipment.
This is one of the most underrated tactics.
A China warehouse can:
Hold your stock through the holiday/Prepare, label, and bundle items
Do inspections/Replenish FBA or Shopify orders quickly
/Support emergency shipments
It gives you control even when factories and shipping lanes slow down.
Sometimes I ship part of my stock to the warehouse, part to FBA, and keep the rest in reserve.
This prevents stockouts and reduces panic.
Many sellers get burned because they “trust” verbal timelines.
Here’s what I always confirm in writing:
Not “soon”—a real date.
Most delays happen because raw materials aren’t stocked.
Each factory has a different deadline.
Some reopen early, others reopen long after the holiday.
Clarity saves you from weeks of uncertainty.
Here’s a quick story from my early years.
My supplier kept saying my order would “definitely ship before the holiday.”
I trusted them.
Bad idea.
Three days before Chinese New Year, they sent a message:
“Sorry, factory already closed. Production will continue after holiday.”
My inventory ran out mid-February.
My rankings died.
My PPC wasted money.
It took months to recover.
Since then, I’ve treated Chinese New Year planning like tax season—you can’t ignore it.
Launching in January or February is risky.
Why?
You can’t reorder fast/QC issues can’t be fixed/Delays kill ranking momentum
/PPC becomes expensive if inventory is unstable
If I launch new products, I do it:
Before mid-December, or/After late March
It gives the product enough breathing room.
Chinese New Year affects each shipping method differently:
Fast but expensive. Rates spike 20–40%.
Cheaper but delays last longer.
Only for emergencies. Expensive during Q1.
Best time: October–November.
Latest: early December.
Increase safety stock by 30–50% for Q1.
Typically 2–4 weeks, but recovery takes longer.
Both. Splitting shipments reduces risk.
It’s not required, but it gives you huge flexibility during disruptions.
Smart Q1 inventory planning for Chinese New Year keeps your business stable, profitable, and fully stocked through the most chaotic period of the global supply chain.
📞Chat on WhatsApp
📩Email: zoye@fulfllment-cn.com
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