Q1 Early Stocking: How to Plan Inventory Before Chinese New Year
Every year, sellers ask the same question:
“Why did my store suddenly stop shipping in January?”
“Why are my tracking numbers delayed?”
“Why are customers opening PayPal disputes?”
If your fulfillment comes from China, the answer is usually one thing — Chinese New Year.
Chinese New Year is not just a holiday.
For global eCommerce, it is a full supply chain pause.
Factories close.
Warehouses slow down.
Airlines reduce capacity.
Couriers stop pickups.
And sellers who didn’t prepare inventory early?
They lose sales in the busiest part of Q1.
This is why Q1 early stocking matters.
What Actually Happens During Chinese New Year?
Many new dropshipping sellers think:
“It’s only a 7-day holiday, right?”
Not exactly.
In reality, the impact lasts 3–5 weeks.
Here is what normally happens:
1. Factories Stop Production (2–3 Weeks)
Workers return to hometowns/Raw materials stop moving/Restocking becomes impossible
2. Logistics Capacity Drops
Fewer cargo flights/Ports congested/International shipping prices fluctuate
3. Last-Mile Delays
Domestic couriers in China stop pickups/Warehouse staffing reduced/Processing times increase
This is why stores without inventory often go into forced vacation mode.
Why Q1 Is Actually a High-Demand Season
Many sellers think Q1 is slow.
It isn’t.
After Christmas comes:
Gift card spending/New Year resolutions/Fitness products/Home organization/Self-improvement purchases
From our warehouse data at HQ CLOUD, January and February still show strong order volume — if inventory exists.
No stock = no revenue.
The Biggest Mistake Sellers Make
Here’s a real example.
A Shopify seller we worked with last year was doing about 150 orders/day in December.
He told us:
“I’ll restock after the holiday.”
But his supplier closed earlier than expected.
Result:
Store stayed open/Orders kept coming/Nothing shipped
Within 9 days:
Chargebacks started/Facebook ads were paused/Store reputation dropped
He didn’t lose traffic.
He lost trust.
How to Plan Q1 Early Stocking (Step-by-Step)
Step 1 — Forecast 30–45 Days of Orders
Instead of guessing, calculate:
Average daily orders (last 30 days)/Multiply by 30–45 days/Add 15% safety stock
Formula:
Daily Orders × 45 + 15% buffer
This protects you during the holiday shutdown.
Step 2 — Send Inventory to a China Fulfillment Warehouse
This is where a 3PL partner helps.
With a fulfillment warehouse like HQ CLOUD:
Products are stored locally/Orders ship even when factories are closed/You keep selling normally
Step 3 — Split Inventory (Very Important)
Do not keep all inventory in one place.
A safer structure:
70% — China fulfillment warehouse30% — Supplier backup
Why?
Because after Chinese New Year, factories don’t immediately resume stable production.
Step 4 — Prepare Packaging in Advance
Holiday periods are actually perfect for:
Custom packaging/Inserts/Branded boxes
When order volume slows slightly, warehouses can upgrade packaging workflows.
Shipping Cutoff Planning
You should always set a store shipping notice before the holiday.
We recommend:
Announce earlier shipping cutoff/Extend handling time on product pages/Add a checkout notification
This reduces:
Refunds/Support tickets/Disputes
Benefits of Early Stocking
Sellers who prepare inventory before Chinese New Year usually get:
Stable delivery times/Lower ad interruption/Higher customer trust/Better Q1 cash flow
Most importantly:
Your competitors pause.
You keep selling.
FAQs
Q1: How early should I send inventory before Chinese New Year?
Ideally 4–6 weeks before the official holiday.
Q2: Can dropshipping still work during the holiday?
Only if inventory is already stored in a fulfillment warehouse.
Q3: Will shipping costs increase?
Yes, close to the holiday. Early stocking avoids peak rates.
Q4: Do warehouses fully close?
Professional 3PL warehouses usually stay partially operational.
Q5: What products are most affected?
Customized or factory-made products experience the longest delays.
Chinese New Year inventory planning is not complicated — but ignoring it is expensive.
📩Email: zoye@fulfllment-cn.com
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